Who will fold first: Sun or Red Hat?

Posted:

Both companies are so screwed right now.

The market of each is being eroded by low-cost or free alternatives, as are the reasons that customers might want to pay a premium for their names.

Both companies wanted to be the next Microsoft and dominate their market.

It’s a close race to the bottom, but I think Red Hat will fold first.

Sun’s still got a damn lot of cash in the bank and barring a massive coke-binder from the CEO, Red Hat will continue to eat through their smaller pile of cash faster while more customers migrate to Suse (for the people who like to pay money) and Debian/Other linux.

Whadda you think?

UPDATE: Well, gosh. Look who just sorted weighed in on this issue. Robert X. Cringely

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UPDATE (2010): Of course,the answer is Sun, who was bought by Oracle in 2009. Red Hat, despite scaling back their desktop linux plan, appears to be doing well, even through the recent economic apocalypse. Novell/SUSE? Not so much. And why not throw in my employer too?

[Original use.perl.org post and comments.]